What to expect when Biden and Xi Jinping meet in California

What to expect when Biden and Xi Jinping meet in California

• Published 14 November 2023
  

By Barbara Plett Usher

BBC State Department correspondent

US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are to meet on Wednesday in the San Francisco Bay area.

The encounter on 15 November will be only their second face-to-face meeting during the Biden presidency.

It will be wide-ranging, US officials said, with the Israel-Hamas war, Taiwan, war in Ukraine and election interference to be discussed.

Relations between the two countries deteriorated earlier this year.

The US accused China of sending a spy balloon across its air space. An American warplane shot it down off the coast of South Carolina.

There was also a visit to Taiwan last year by then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which led China to break off communication between the two nations' militaries.

Mr Biden is "determined" to restore those channels, two senior administration officials said last week, but China appeared "reluctant" to do so.

"This is not the relationship of five or 10 years ago, we're not talking about a long list of outcomes or deliverables," one of the officials said.

"The goals here really are about managing the competition, preventing the downside of risk - of conflict, and ensuring channels of communication are open."

The BBC has also learned that Mr Xi will attend a private dinner with US business executives in San Francisco after his meeting with Mr Biden.

For $40,000 (£32,800), guests can sit at the Chinese president's table. Tickets start at $2,000 per person.

A spokesman for the National Committee on US-China Relations, one of the organisers of the dinner, had earlier told the BBC an "extremely senior" Chinese official would attend a planned event, though he would not confirm if it was Mr Xi.

The Biden-Xi bilateral will take place during the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) summit, which the US is hosting in San Francisco from 11 to 17 November.

Taiwan is likely to be at the top of the list of topics China will be keen to discuss. It claims sovereignty over the self-ruled island, which is set to hold elections early next year.

Mr Xi may ask for additional reassurances that the US does not support Taiwanese independence. Mr Biden, meanwhile, is expected to underscore American concerns about Beijing's military activities around Taiwan, according to a senior administration official.

There will also be discussions about US restrictions on technology exports to China and tensions over Beijing's territorial claims in the South China and East China Seas.

Aside from these core disagreements over trade and competition, Mr Biden's most urgent request will be for China to restrain Iran by using what influence Beijing has to warn it against escalating violence in the Middle East in response to the Israel-Hamas war.

Analysts predict the summit may result in some modest achievements - perhaps on restoring military communications and restricting the flow of Chinese-made Fentanyl.

But neither side is expecting any breakthroughs that would reset the relationship - this will be about managing and stabilizing it.

The Chinese blame the deterioration in relations on Washington. Mr Xi made that clear in March when he accused the US of "encircling, containing and suppressing China", said Jude Blanchett of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank.

And while China's US ambassador Xie Feng recently extolled positive steps towards improving ties, he stressed the importance of assurances.

Beijing wants to know "that the US does not seek to change China's system, does not seek a new Cold War, does not support Taiwan independence and has no intention to seek decoupling from China", he said at the Hong Kong Forum on US-China relations.

The Biden administration says it's trying to counter aggressive Chinese behaviour that flouts international norms.

But it has worked hard to ease tensions after the balloon crisis - sending three cabinet members to Beijing since June, including the Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Mr Blinken had abruptly cancelled a planned visit to Beijing in February, saying China's decision to fly the apparent spy balloon over the US was "unacceptable and irresponsible".

But when the trip eventually went headed in June he had what he described as "a robust conversation" with Mr Xi. The summit is the result of this hands-on diplomacy.

US officials say their diplomats have been raising the importance of re-establishing military dialogue in "nearly every conversation" with their Chinese counterparts over the past year, but with no success.

The spy balloon incident, "comes up often" when discussing the communications freeze, one official said.

"I think the balloon episode underscored the difficulty we had at the time to be able to establish high-level, consequential communications with Beijing," the official added.

"And we've made that case persistently and consistently."

US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen also held talks with Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng last week, ahead of the Xi-Biden meeting, to discuss economic co-operation between the two countries.

Ahead of the visit, Chinese state media outlet Global Times wrote an editorial that put the responsibility on Mr Biden to "overcome and eliminate disruptions" between China and the US.

"There is a dark force in Washington that is undermining US-China relations, and the more critical the moment, the more active they become," the 8 November editorial said.

With reporting from Robert Plummer in London, Brandon Drenon in Washington and Tessa Wong in Singapore.

QUESTIONS :

1. Introduce the source.

2. What are the bones of contention between the two countries ?

3. Are we on the verge of a new cold war ? 

ANSWERS : 

1. We have an article from BBC News Website published on 14, Nov. 2023 by the BBC State Department correspondent, Barbara Plett Usher. She is a Canadian-born UK journalist with experience in the Middle East and the UN. Since 2021 she has been based in Washington D.C. USA. In this article she deals with the issues related to Biden - Xi Jinping meeting in California during the APEC summit from 11 to 17 November.

2. The bones of contention are :

- the Israel-Hamas war : China has been diplomatically very active in the Middle East. Xi Jinping welcomed President Abbas to Beijing and invited President Netanyahu to visit. China’s role in the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia demonstrated the importance of China in Foreign Affairs. Then, on October 7, the armed group Hamas launched a surprise assault on Israel, killing at least 1,400 people and abducting more than 200. Israel has responded with relentless bombardment of the blockaded Gaza and recently launched ground attacks into the coastal strip. 9,770 Palestinians have been killed so far. Biden visited Israel in a show of solidarity and ordered the deployment of 2,000 troops to deter any other actors from widening the conflict in the region.

Xi has called for a ceasefire and the Chinese foreign minister declared that the source of the conflict  « lies in the fact that justice has not been done Palestinian people » and that the « collective punishment » of the Palestinians must come to an end. It seems that the Chinese government did not adopt a committal tone and only called for calm. Nevertheless, China along with Russia, vetoed a US draft resolution that stated Israel’s right to defend itself and demand that Iran stop exporting arms to hardline groups. As far as to know if China can « restreint Iran », it is a complex question. Iran, Russia and China belong to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China arms deliveries to Iran goes back to the 1990s and joint military drills take place every year to strengthen security in the region. From the 1980s onwards, China has transferred nuclear technology to Iran as well. So maybe, China has a leverage on Iran… But, these countries have one enemy : the US and their policy will  aim at weakening it.

- Taiwan : « is at the top of the list of topics » : In August 2022, Nancy Pelosi became  the highest-ranking American official to visit Taiwan thus triggering tensions between the US and China. The latter considers that Taiwan is part of its territory while the US considers Taiwan as a sovereign entity. China took retaliation measures and organized drills to threaten the Taiwanese. The island is preparing itself to a conflict and has the logistic and advisory supports of the US. A conflict would damage the whole world in every way possible.     

- Claims about South China and East China Seas : 

- The Chinese consider that the South Sea belongs to their sovereignty and international waters are not relevant. They do not support the maritime laws.

- Many disputes oppose China to Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei in that area 

- China considers that the area had been discovered by Han fishermen in 2 BC.

- Vietnam has claimed the occupation of the Spratly and Paracel islands since the 17th c.

Economic motives : 

- to control sea routes (busiest area of commercial shipping traffic)

- Strategic nodes such as straits. Ex : Malacca ; Singapore ; Taiwan

- There are gas and oil resources (off-shore). Estimations hold the reserves at 17.7 billion tons (4th largest reserve bed in the world). 

- productive area for fishing

Geostrategic issues :

- Militarization means : the control of the sea and air spaces.

- Forces to intervene rapidly in the area.

The Spratly islands dispute is a regional maritime territorial sovereignty dispute which involves six countries in the South China Sea - China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. Underscored by the prospects of large natural energy reserves, control of strategic maritime areas, and shifting global power dynamics. The dispute is characterized by diplomatic stalemate and military pressure techniques. Since the 1970s’ every neighboring country but Brunei has occupied islands from the archipelago and has been exploiting the hydrocarbons (with sometimes foreign TNC’s like Crestone).

Many clashes occurred between fishermen that do not respect the EEZ of the others. Chinese fishermen are regularly arrested for instance.

From 2009 onwards the countries from the South China Sea have claimed the extension of their continental shelves.

Philippines has filed a formal protest at the international tribunal for the law of the sea for the harassment of their fishermen by the Chinese. 

- War in Ukraine : China’s position has been ambivalent. It has blamed enlargement of NATO and has stressed respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. China has abstained during the UNO votes on the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, China is involved in the conflict and sells weapons to both sides (drones). Talks with Zelensky have taken place as well. And the Ukrainian president declared that he was satisfied with China’s posture. 

- Election interference : China was accused of interference in the 2019 and 2021 Canadian elections either by threatening politicians or by financing MP’s political campaigns. It has also run disinformation campaigns on social media.

- The Chinese balloon incident occurred in February 2023 when a high-altitude balloon flew across the Canadian and US airspace and was shot down by the Americans. The balloon carried intelligence devices but did not appear to have sent information back to China. According to the Chinese, it was a meteorological airship. For the Pentagon, it was a surveillance balloon. The incident increased US-China tensions. The US said it had violated the sovereignty of the State. Eventually the US took retaliation sanctions : « US restrictions on technology exports to China ». The Biden Administration has taken further steps to constrain Chinese access to advanced computing  and artificial intelligence technology by refining and expanding existing export control rules restricting China’s access to U.S. semiconductors and related technologies. 

- The flow of Chinese-made Fentanyl : Fentanyl (synthetic opioid = pain killer) and other opioids are fueling the worst drug crisis in the history of the US. In 2022, 10,375 people in the US died of drug overdoses and drug poisonings. China remains the primary source of fentanyl - traffics to the US. On May, 1 2019 China officially classified all forms of fentanyl as drugs. This fulfilled the commitment that Xi Jinping made during the G-20 summit. The implementation of the new measure includes investigations on manufacturing areas, on internet sites, on shipping regulations… At the end of the last summit China has agreed to reduce the flow of fentanyl in the US by curtailing shipments to Mexico where the materials are delivered to be transformed.

3. The author says that « the goals here really are about managing the competition, preventing the downside of risk - of conflict, and ensuring channels of communication are open ». 

Definition of the « Cold War » : It was a period of geopolitical tension between the US and the USSR and their respective allies (1947 - 1991). The struggle for dominance was expressed via indirect means : psychological warfare, propaganda campaigns, espionage, embargoes, sports diplomacy and technological competition. The struggle is fueled by the existence of two divergent ideological models.