With even leavers regretting Brexit, there’s one path back to rejoining the EU

With even leavers regretting Brexit, there’s one path back to rejoining the EU

It seems only a matter of time before we reverse this national act of self-harm. Especially if we learn from Nigel Farage

Fri 23 Jun 2023 18.04 CEST

Last modified on Fri 23 Jun 2023 20.40 CEST

Let Nigel Farage be our inspiration, let John Redwood be our role model. Not the way they would want, revered as the founding fathers of Brexit, toasted on this day every year as the men who led us to glorious independence from the hated empire of Brussels. Of course not that. On the contrary, 23 June 2016 is a milestone in our national story that evokes sadness and regret rather than celebration.

We don’t need to rehearse on this seventh anniversary all the ways in which Brexit has disappointed even those who voted for it. Farage and Redwood, along with Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Jacob Rees-Mogg and the rest, promised increased prosperity, cheaper food, flourishing trade and a flush NHS. They said we’d be free of all that tedious European red tape and would take back control of our borders, encouraging anyone agitated by immigration to believe that fewer people would come in. There would be no downside, only upsides. As David Davis pledged soon after the vote, our exit deal would « deliver the exact same benefits » as EU membership.

Look around to see how all that turned out. The country is in the grip of a cost of living crisis, food prices are rocketing, trade is either down or static while it’s surged for our EU neighbours, and the NHS is ailing. Post-Brexit red tape is strangling thousands of small businesses, whether travelling musicians or exporters of goods, tying them up in daunting forms or extra charges that cost time and money they don’t have. Those who thought legal migration of 330,000 people a year was too much when they voted in 2016 now contemplate an annual figure nearly twice as high: 606,000. As for the terms of our exit, ask anyone who buys from, sells to or is stuck in a queue to visit the continent if we enjoy the “exact same benefits” we once did.

These are not remainer facts. They are facts understood and absorbed by a growing majority of the British people, including a good chunk of those who voted leave. As the polling guru John Curtice notes just 33% of Britons now believe the 2016 decision was the right one, while 55% say it was wrong. More striking still, as many as 59% say the would rejoin the EU if given the chance, with just 41% preferring to stay out.

Combine those two facts – that Brexit has proved to be both disastrous and unpopular – and it’s easy to conclude that it’s only a matter of time before we reverse the decision we took seven years ago today. Indeed, it’s tempting to look at the 41 years that separated the 1975 referendum that sealed our membership and the 2016 ballot that ended it, reflect that politics moves twice as fast as it used to and predict that it will take half the time to undo Brexit – with a vote to rejoin scheduled for late 2036. After all, it is surely unsustainable to continue on a course that an emerging consensus regards as an act of national self-harm.

Except the world is littered with unsustainable situations that are nevertheless sustained, seemingly for ever. And there are multiple obstacles that stand between us and what, to rejoinders, seems like a date with our obvious destiny.

For one thing, the status quo ante those 59% are longing to restore may no longer be available. The 27 remaining nations of the EU will be understandably wary of plunging themselves once more into the on-again-off-again psychodrama of the UK’s relationship to Europe – a drama that is, in fact, about the UK’s relationship to itself, its struggle to see its place in the world as it truly is and to accept being a medium-sized European power rather than the imperial superpower of the recent past. The member states of the EU would need to know that this time it’s for keeps.

If they do entertain talk of UK readmission, it won’t be on the same terms as before. The UK had a sweetheart deal – including a hefty cash rebate, an opt-out on the euro and much more – that the 27 will be reluctant to offer again. Any future referendum is likely to be on a package less appealing than the one Britons cast aside in 2016.

To get to that point, a governing party would first have to put the question. Few are rushing to do that. Labour’s preferred posture is Trappist, hoping to stay mute on the issue lest it unsettle the pro-leave members of its electoral coalition. If it does speak, it is to say that Brexit is done and there will be no change. Even the Liberal Democrats, perhaps eyeing pro-Brexit voters in south-west target seats, keep their mouths shut.

Of course, politics is dynamic and those calculations could change. But given the tortuous process of EU-UK negotiation that would be involved, rejoin is a project that could span two parliaments: which party would willingly commit that much political capital to such an endeavour? Especially when you consider that “Europe” has lost much of its salience. In 2019, 70% rated it as the most important issue facing the country; now just 19% say that.

More poignantly, rejoin is predicated on the notion that Britons miss what they no longer have. What if that feeling dissipates, as memories fade? “A generation brought up without the Erasmus scheme and who find it easier to travel to the US than to the EU will think differently,” says Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe.

All these obstacles are real. None can be wished away. Which is why rejoinders need to look to the likes of Farage and Redwood for inspiration. The long march from 1975 to 2016 required a dogged, even obsessive, persistence and, as important, a strategic patience. They didn’t move straight to their end goal: before they were Brexiters, they posed as mere Eurosceptics. They were prepared to play the long game, inching incrementally – a rebellion over the Maastricht treaty here, opposition to joining the euro there – towards their ultimate goal of exit. Sad to say, it worked.

Rejoinders should do the same. Start with commonsense, popular demands– say, a new, reciprocal exchange scheme for young people, closer cooperation on security or shared food safety and environmental standards – moves only an ideologue could oppose. A review of the EU-UK trade agreement is due to start in 2026: with a Labour government in place, that could be the vehicle for steady, gradual convergence. After that, the Overton window could be sufficiently open to let in a conversation about re-entering the customs union and the single market. And once you’re talking about that, rejoining the EU itself becomes the natural course of action.

Step by step by step. Mocked and on the margins at first, dismissed as unrealistic or swivel-eyed, prepared to be a Europe bore – the Brexiters showed us how it’s done and what it takes. It might be harder for us than it was for them. We have the young, but they had the old and the old vote. We have facts, but they had myths, and myths are often more potent. Still, theirs is a path worth studying. It led them to a rupture from our neighbours. It might just lead us to a reunion.

• Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist

WORD BOX :

- red tape : 

- surge : la hausse

- strangle : étrangler ; étouffer, asphyxier

- daunting : intimidant

- chunk : gros morceau ; costaud ; couper en gros morceaux

- seemingly : apparemment ; de toute évidence

- wary : méfiant ; sur ses gardes ; circonspect

- span : durée ; un instant ; couvrir / recouvrir

- endeavour : effort ; s’efforcer de faire

- salience : importance ; prépondérance

- dogged : obstiné ; tenace

- inching : advancer doucement

- incrementally : croissant pas à pas

- swivel-eyed : faire les yeux ronds

- potent : puissant ; fort 

QUESTIONS : 

1. Introduce the source.

2. Why are : Farage, Redwood, B. Johnson, Michael Gove, Jacob Rees-Mogg, David Davis related to the Brexit ?

3. What is the outcome of the Brexit ?

4. Why is the idea of ‘rejoining’ either sensitive and tricky ?

ANSWERS : 

1. This an article published in « The Guardian » 5 months ago. Written by Jonathan Freedland, a British columnist at the newspaper. He is also an editorialist for « the Jewish Chronicle » and « the New York Times ». He was rewarded in 2002 and 2008 for his work.  

2.  Nigel Farage : is the former leader of UKIP and the Brexit Party. He served as a member of the European Parliament (MEP). In May 2023, Farage said that Brexit had failed due to the policies of successive Conservative government.

Sir John Alan Redwood : is a British politician and academic who has been MP since 1987. He served M. Thatcher as Director of 10 Downing Street Policy Unit. He is a veteran Eurosceptic. he supported the Brexit in the 2016 EU referendum. 

B. Johnson : is a British politician who served as Mayor of London, MP and PM for the Conservative Party from 2019 to 2022. He was a prominent figure in the successful « Vote Leave » campaign for Brexit in the 2016 referendum. He became PM after Theresa May. He re-openened negotiations with the EU that led to EU-UK trade agreement.

Michael Gove : is a British Conservative politician who is currently Secretary of State for Leveling Up, Housing and Communities. Gove was leading the Leave campaign. His eurosceptism goes back to the collapse of his fathers’s fishing business in the 1970s’ which the family blamed directly on the EU.

Jacob Rees-Mogg : Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg is a member of Parliament serving a MP. Eurosceptic,  he proposed an electoral pact between the Conservatives and UKIP and campaign to leave the EU in the 2006 referendum. He is seen as a reactionary figure with traditionalist attitude.

David Davis : Member of the Conservative Party he has served as MP. he was Minister of State for Europe from 1994 to 1997. After the referendum, he was in charge of the negotiations but rejected T. May’s Brexit strategy and resigned on July 2018. 

3. The situation is clearly depicted in those lines :

« The country is in the grip of a cost of living crisis, food prices are rocketing, trade is either down or static while it’s surged for our EU neighbours, and the NHS is ailing. Post-Brexit red tape is strangling thousands of small businesses, whether travelling musicians or exporters of goods, tying them up in daunting forms or extra charges that cost time and money they don’t have. Those who thought legal migration of 330,000 people a year was too much when they voted in 2016 now contemplate an annual figure nearly twice as high: 606,000. As for the terms of our exit, ask anyone who buys from, sells to or is stuck in a queue to visit the continent if we enjoy the “exact same benefits” we once did. »

The IMF has warned that Britain will be the only major industrialized country to see its economy shrink this year - and perform even worse thanks sanctions-hit Russia. Imports mean more paperwork (red tape) than before and more taxes as well. The UK is dependent on food imports (food prices are rocketing). At the moment there is a shortage of vegetables.The UK is also hit by labor force shortages. There will be half a million fewer people than before the pandemic, as a result of people retiring earlier and fewer EU immigrants. The UK is looking for truck drivers for instance. There is also the impact of higher interest rates on mortgage costs that will decrease the purchasing power and the consumption of people. The energy costs have also impacted the production. For instance vegetables need to be produced in greenhouses but because of the impact of the war in Ukraine many producers have decided to wait until spring to produce vegetables again. Moreover, the Centre for European Reform showed that Britains’s economy was 5.5% smaller than it would have been had it remained inside the EU. The UK’s goods trade was 7% lower and investment 11% down (£29 bn) on what it would have been if Britain had voted « Remain ». Many companies have decided to relocate to the continent or to Singapore (Example : Dyson). The Brexit has exacerbated the UK’s productivity slowdown and is already responsible for a 1.3% loss of GDP. The UK is in recession and that is expected to last more than a year and knock 2% off economic output. The weak forecast for pay and high inflation means that wages will not return to their 2008 level until 2027. Living standards are expected to fall by 7% over the next two years (cost of living crisis). Many areas that were dependent on the EU funds face new issues (ex Wales). The British policy towards immigration is a fiasco as well. Suella Braverman was sacked last week because of blunt declarations. Her policy as Home Secretary (deportation of undocumented migrants to Rwanda was very controversial) and she did not halt illegal immigration at all. It’s quite the opposite. To finish with, the NHS is the cornerstone of the welfare state. it has been created after WW2 and went through a drop in its budget thanks to M. Thatcher’s neoliberal policy. She broke the consensus in the 1980’s. After her legacy of cuts in the state expenditures and the privatisation and deregulation of public services, every PM promised to save the NHS. Boris Johnson promised money that never came. The NHS which is very dear to the British people is falling apart. Hospitals are running well over capacity. Thousands of people have to wait more than 12 hours for an emergency admission. Nurses and ambulance staff have staged a series of strikes over pay and working conditions and patients safety is at risk. And with the tax burden on track to reach its highest sustained level since the NHS was founded, Britons are paying more and more for a service they increasingly cannot access as quickly as they need.

4.The author’s point of view is biased. He supports the ideas of the rejoinders but consider that 2036 for a new referendum is too far from now. He fears that the terms and conditions of a new treaty would not be the same. He also argues that as the Conservative supported widely « Leave », the Labour party should endorse the crusade of the rejoinders. But the political sphere was not so wisely divided. Some politicians on both sides campaigned for « Leave » or « Remain »  disagreeing with their political families.To finish with, he thinks that maybe in 2036 the new generation will have new claims and complaints and will not consider the EU as an opportunity for a better future.